Introduction
Thanks to the positive atmosphere created by lawyer and social democrat politician Dr. Tufan Erhürman of the pro-European CTP (Republican Turkish Party), who won this year's presidential elections in the TRNC (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus), the federal solution atmosphere in Nicosia, Europe's last divided capital, has warmed up again and has also managed to gain open support from the European Union (EU). Following reports that the two leaders (Tufan Erhürman: Turkish Cypriots, Nikos Christodoulides: Greek Cypriots) began official negotiations under the supervision of the United Nations (UN), and following reports that the talks were positive, the 6th President of the TRNC, Tufan Erhürman, met with Johannes Hahn, the European Commission's Special Representative for Cyprus, and succeeded in obtaining confirmation of Brussels' support for the process.
Johannes Hahn's Messages on Cyprus
The pieces are slowly falling into place for a federal solution in Cyprus. Following the warm messages of support for a solution from Nikos Christodoulides, President of the Republic of Cyprus, which will assume the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for a six-month term starting January 1, 2026, European Union officials have also begun to express their full support for a federal solution in Cyprus. For example, Johannes Hahn, the European Commission's Special Representative for Cyprus, who met with the leaders of both communities on the island and the President the previous day, announced that the EU is prepared to add a clause to the 2028-2034 budget to reflect the reconciliation that will emerge in the event of reunification and the additional financial needs. In doing so, Hahn sent a clear message that Brussels could provide the necessary material/economic resources to bridge the development gap between the two sides of the island and prepare the TRNC for EU membership. Stating that the resolution of the Cyprus Conflict would also positively affect Türkiye-EU relations, Hahn conveyed the message that the EU is “ready to work for peace, security, and prosperity in Cyprus.” In an interview with the Yenidüzen newspaper, Hahn also reminded that a two-state solution in Cyprus is not possible, stating that a federal solution is the only valid and feasible solution method in terms of UN parameters and international law. Moreover, he described the leader of the Turkish Cypriots, Tufan Erhürman, as “open-minded and constructive.”
Comment
In order to rectify the years of lawlessness and chaos that have fostered the emergence of illegal, unregistered groups in the north of the island, which pose a threat not only to Türkiye and Cyprus but to all other states, the Cyprus negotiations and the reunification of Cypriots on both sides of the island have, in recent years, become the most reasonable and increasingly the only reasonable option. Although rising Islamophobia and far-right movements in Europe raise legitimate concerns in this regard, the fact that the rule of law and level of development in EU member states are at a much more advanced stage compared to Muslim/Turkic states, and the legal guarantees provided by the EU, are an important source of support for Turkish Cypriots.
In addition, a political solution in Cyprus and good relations with the EU could be an important and beneficial achievement for the rebirth/development of the rule of law and democracy in Türkiye. In fact, this could also provide new momentum for Türkiye's economic development. At this point, strategic messages that are free from jingoism and nationalism and accurately reflect international legal norms should be conveyed to the Turkish public, and it should be made clear that the two-state thesis is not accepted in any other country, not even in Türkiye's closest allies. In this way, the Turkish public should be prepared for what is necessary and what will happen. Maintaining Türkiye's investments and military presence on the island to a certain extent and securing legal privileges that allow Turkish citizens to freely enter and exit the Turkish region in northern Cyprus will also become a critical factor in the negotiations.
In conclusion, the island of Cyprus has not been under Ottoman/Turkish rule for the past 150 years and has remained an independent and sovereign state, not incorporated into Turkish territory even after the 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation. Türkiye, exercising its guarantor rights, intervened legally and justifiably on the island in 1974 and provided historical assistance to both Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots to restore the federal administration in Cyprus. Now, in the name of continuing this historical contribution, Ankara must support the federal solution negotiations. Otherwise, such an approach would reinforce the perception that Türkiye's stance is expansionist (imperialist) rather than guarantor. In our view, neither the late Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit nor today's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan intended expansionism, but rather to rescue Turkish Cypriots. Therefore, I believe it should come as no surprise to anyone that the government in Ankara is not obstructing the negotiations. Finally, it has become essential for security units in the EU and Türkiye to be on alert against sabotage attempts by the far right in Europe and Türkiye against the peace process.
Prof. Dr. Ozan ÖRMECİ
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