Uluslararası Politika Akademisi (UPA) Genel Koordinatörü Dr. Ozan Örmeci, 24 Şubat 2016 tarihinde Ada Tv’de yayınlanan ve Mustafa Ertanın’ın sunduğu “Neden Olmasın” programına katıldı ve Kıbrıs, Türkiye, Orta Doğu ve dünya siyasetindeki son gelişmeler hakkında fikirlerini izleyicilerle paylaştı. Programa Birleşik Kıbrıs Partisi (BKP) Dış İlişkiler Sekreteri Salih Sonüstün de katıldı. Aşağıda bu programın görüntülerini izleyebilirsiniz.
25 Şubat 2016 Perşembe
5 Şubat 2016 Cuma
Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ozan Örmeci Ada Tv'de Orta Doğu ve Türkiye Gündemini Değerlendirdi
Uluslararası Politika Akademisi (UPA) Genel Koordinatörü Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ozan Örmeci, 4 Şubat 2016 tarihinde Ada Tv'de yayınlanan "Öğlen Ajansı" programında Suriye'deki gelişmeleri ve Türkiye'deki Başkanlık sistemi tartışmalarını değerlendirdi. Aşağıda bu programın görüntüsünü bulabilirsiniz.
25 Ocak 2016 Pazartesi
Sino-American Normalization
Introduction
Since Sino-American relations seem to have entered into a tense new period in recent years due to growing Chinese enthusiasm in political and economic leadership in the world politics, it might be a wise effort to look at past experiences and especially concentrate on the Sino-American normalization that took place in the early 1970s.
Background: Cold War in Asia
Cold War not only took place in Europe, but also in Asia. US policy in East Asia was focused primarily on the elimination of the menace of Japanese militarism and on the support of the nationalist government of China under Jiang Jieshi (Chiang Kai-shek) as the main pillar of stability in Asia. But within 5 short years, the US was confronted with a set of affairs very different from what Washington had envisioned just after the war. During this early phase of Cold War, US foreign policy towards Asia was successful concerning the demilitarization and the restructuring of Japan, but complete disaster concerning stability in China. The nationalist regime in China was defeated by the Chinese communists who, under the leadership of Chairman Mao Zedong, proclaimed the founding of the People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949. The largest nation on earth was now under communist rule. Only 9 months later, the communist forces of North Korea invaded the US-supported anti-communist regime in South Korea, and in the Korean War, for the first time, the rivals of the Cold War, East and West, clashed in the field of battle.
Following the Korean War (1950-1953) which had disastrous consequences for all sides and no visible gains, US military involvement in Vietnam (1965-1973) that resulted in the greatest failure of American foreign policy during the Cold War, ironically, coincided with the gradual improvement of bilateral relations between Washington and two great communist states: USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) and China (People’s Republic of China). The first détente took place in the 1960s between Washington and Moscow and eased the tensions. However, US-USSR détente was not very fruitful and did not turn out to be a long-term rapprochement. The second détente on the other hand, saw the normalization of relations between US and China. As a result, US President Richard Nixon visited Beijing in 1972. The second détente was a successful initiative and it gradually improved relations between Washington and Beijing. Sino-American normalization was one of the turning points in Cold War history according to many observers since it made US more advantageous and stronger against Soviet Russia.
Sino-Soviet Split
The split between USSR and China gave the US a golden opportunity during the most critical times of the Cold War. Rapprochement between the US and the vast Chinese Empire could only give the Soviets a headache and it did. At the first phase of the Cold War, it had been Moscow that had been able to play the “China card” against USA. With this, Russia’s first line of defense in the east had been on the shores of the Yellow Sea. Moreover, Russia found a strong partner in the Asian world and ideologically also Chinese support (a country ruled by Maoism, a variant of Marxism-Leninism) meant a stronger international communist movement. However, things began to change with the Sino-Soviet split.
The Sino-Soviet split became manifest in the late 1950s. China’s founder and undisputable chef Mao Zedong was already blaming Americans for “capitalist imperialism”. But after the Sino-Soviet split, he began to perceive Soviet leader Joseph Stalin as a “capitalist roader” and blamed Russians for “socialist imperialism”. This meant a more neutralized China, closer to the Non-Aligned Movement rather than the Communist world. This was surely a big loss for Russia but US-China normalization still seemed impossible.
Sino-American Normalization
Sino-Soviet split was a chance for Sino-American normalization. However, two countries had no official relations for more than 20 years and they were acting hostile to each other. Successive US Presidents were denouncing “Red China” as a menace to the peace-loving peoples of Asia. US was maintaining relations with nationalist regime in Taiwan and was calling Taiwan as the only legitimate government of China. Until now, US and its allies implemented harsh embargos on China. However, in 1964, independent-minded French government led by Charles De Gaulle broke ranks and extended formal recognition to China.
This interminable hostility between USA and China ended quite suddenly in the early 1970s, in one of the most dramatic turnabouts in modern diplomatic history. On July 5, 1971, President Richard Nixon made an unanticipated announcement that stunned the world. He stated that he intended to travel to China within 6 months, at the invitation of the Chinese government, for the purpose of developing friendly relations with that government. He revealed that his secretary of the state, Mr. Henry Kissinger, had just returned from a secret trip to Beijing where he and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai had made arrangements for this diplomatic breakthrough. The Nixon administration had begun making subtle overtures to China in the previous year. In Warsaw, where the US and Chinese ambassadors had periodically engaged in secret talks, the US side intimated its desire for improved relations. President Nixon started to call China with its official name instead of “Red China” or “Communist China”.
Henry Kissinger with Zhou Enlai in China
This opened door for “ping-pong diplomacy”[1], a public relations effort to prepare two societies for the normalization of relations. A US table tennis team was invited to play an exhibition tournament in Beijing, and Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai gave them a warm reception. President Nixon responded by a relaxation of the US trade embargo on China. This was followed by Kissinger’s secret trip to China in July 1971. The following February, President Nixon made his historic two-week visit to China.[2] Nixon was accompanied by a large group of journalists and camera crews. This was very ironic that an anti-communist political figure like Nixon made this historical change in bilateral relations, since it was the first time that a US President visited communist China. Both sides came to the realization that they had much more to gain by ending their mutual hostility than by continuing it.
Consequences
Sino-American normalization meant for China a quick entry into UN and to have a better position concerning the Taiwan question. China’s international prestige increased quickly and they gained a lot from developing economic relations with US. US also gained a lot from this opening. Nixon and Kissinger developed a new design for global balance of power with this diplomatic initiative. Two superpowers were to be replaced by 5 major power centers in this new design: US, USSR, Western Europe, Japan and China. Moreover, the US was now playing the China card in its relations to Moscow.
The major obstacle for the developing relations was now Taiwan problem. US leaders formulated “two China formula” by recognizing both of the countries. Thus, China became a member of UN and replaced Taiwan as one of the five permanent UN Security Council members. This was just beginning of the normalization process. Formal recognition of China by the US took place few years later in 1979. This was delayed by several reasons; Watergate scandal, death of Mao and Zhou and internal problems in Chinese leadership until Deng Xiaoping’s consolidation of power in 1978. President Carter and Deng became two leaders to resume full diplomatic relations. By this move, China was recognized by all countries in the world and got rid of isolation. This also led to a normalization of relations between China and Japan.
Dr. Ozan ÖRMECİ
REFERENCE
- McWilliams, Wayne C. & Piotrowski, Harry (2001), The World Since 1945: A History of International Relations.
19 Ocak 2016 Salı
Divisions in Islam and Current Sectarian Tensions
Following the execution of Shiite Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr by Saudi Arabia, sectarian conflicts and tensions in Islam are now more widely spoken. Recent Saudi Arabia-Islamic Republic of Iran rivalry and the power struggles between Sunni and Shiite Islamic groups in many countries including Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen clearly show how dangerous sectarian fanaticism could become and could eventually cause direct or proxy wars between different countries. Divisions within Islam, in fact, constitute a centuries-old matter and they continue to grow due to current political rivalries between countries.
Islam
Islam is the third of world’s great religions to come out of the Middle East. It represents Muslims which constitute the second largest worshipper group in the world after Christians. The revelations to Islam’s prophet Mohammed were codified in the Koran, the holy book of Muslims which contains God’s commands to the faithful. According to Muslims, Koran is God’s word and last in time. There are 5 basic laws of Islam; the affirmation that consists of one of the shortest credos of any religion in the world (There is no god but God and Mohammed is the Prophet of God), pay an alms tax (zakat) of around 5 percent, 5 daily prayers facing toward Mecca, abstention from food, drink and sexual intercourse from dawn to sunset during the lunar month of Ramadan and pilgrimage or haj to the holy city of Mecca. Following the death of Mohammed, Islam spread quickly throughout the Middle East and North Africa.
Divisions in Islam
The most visible and radical advocates of resurgent militant Islam are the Shiites, the smaller of the main branches of Islam. The other wing, the Sunnis, represents the mainstream Islam and constitutes 85-90 % of all Muslim population. In Iran, Shiism is the state religion. Shiites are concentrated in Iran, Azerbaijan, Gulf states, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and in Central Asia.
The split between Sunnis and Shiites took place two decades after the Prophet’s death in 632. A line of khalifa, or caliphs, took Mohammed’s place as his deputies and successors. The first of four caliphs, the Rightly Guided, were selected from the ranks of Mohammed’s associates and after that the line became hereditary. As the caliphs became more tyrannical, problems emerged. There were those who insisted that Ali, the husband of Mohammed’s daughter Fatima, was the true successor. The assassination of the reigning caliph in 656 set off a civil war from which dates the open split between the party of Ali who was also assassinated, and the main branch. The struggle lasted until the Battle of Karbala in 681, when the Sunnis established their domination and the Shiite resistance went underground.
The struggle was both political and religious in nature. Its political content lay in the fact that the Shiites became the champions of the oppressed and the opponents of privilege and power. Politics and religion, in the Shiites’ eyes, cannot be separated as Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran later mentioned: “All of Islam is politics”. Obedience to civil authority unlike Shiite branch, has been a hallmark of Sunni behavior. Sunnis and Shiites both accept the Prophet’s promise of the return of one of his descendants who will fill the world with justice and equity. However, for Shiites, the spirit of messianism is central to their creed. They look to an imam, a divinely appointed descendant of Mohammed, whose purpose is spiritual guidance to the faithful. The Sunnis on the other hand, have always stood for the continuity of the social, political and religious order. They have always emphasized consensus and obedience to civil and religious authority. Radicalism in the name of Islam still exists on both camps and seems like increasing day by day. Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 and Iraq-Iran War (1980-1988) seem to be the two most important events that deepened conflicts between Shiite and Sunni camps.
Islamic Revolution in Iran
Sectarian tensions in the Middle East increased rapidly after the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. From the end of World War II until the late 1970s, Iran stood in sharp contrast to its neighbors. Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and his country appeared to be a rock of stability in the turbulent Middle East, a bulwark against political radicalism, Islamic fundamentalism and Soviet expansionism. It was little wonder that, even after the Shah’s internal position had been shaken by violent protests, US President Jimmy Carter could have still praised him for his stabilizing influence in the Middle East. Surely, there was no solid reason to believe that the Shah, still apparently a vigorous man in middle age, would not continue to rule Iran as he had in the past. Moreover, he was preparing his young son to succeed him on the Peacock Throne.
But Iran turned out to be another case of US involvement in a foreign land of which few people in authority in Washington had an adequate understanding. The outward stability of the nation only masked the volatile undercurrents, which had deep historic roots. The Shah had ruled for a long time, ever since 1941, but his reign had often been unstable, an uncomfortable fact that too many US policy makers often conveniently overlooked. The militant clergy were a nuisance, they reasoned, but they certainly appeared to be no threat to the Shah. Successful resistance coming from militant Shiite clergy over the centuries was a constant thread running through Iran history. Due to political problems, economic problems and increasing authoritarian and repressive policies of the Shah regime, a revolution took place in Iran in 1979. Soon, this was found out to be an Islamic regime although it was initially supported by communists and liberals as well. Even US help to Shah regime was not sufficient to prevent Khomeini and its pious supporters. Khomeini was a militant Islamist who identified the West as Iran’s real enemy and USA as the “Great Satan”. In February 1979, Khomeini returned from exile in Paris and became the religious leader of the new regime. Following the revolution, there were attacks to US Embassy in Tehran. The Islamic Revolution transferred sovereignty from the Shah to the clergy. It swept away Pahlavi dynasty and introduced a new Sharia-based constitution. It also provided a redistribution of land in favor of poors.
Islamic Revolution in Iran did nothing but to increase sectarian tensions in the Middle East. Now ruled by Shiite Islamic doctrine, Iran began to act as the guardian of all Shiite Muslims in the world. This meant Iran’s involvement into many Arab states’ internal affairs. This was not welcomed warmly by the Arab elite. Sunni and Shiite masses began to become more politicized in terms of their sectarian identity.
The Iran-Iraq War
Sunni-Shiite rivalry was deepened by the Iraq-Iran War that lasted between 1980 and 1988. Saddam Hussein of Iraq invaded Iran in September 1980. Saddam sought to destroy Khomeini’s revolution which he feared might spread to his country especially to Shiites in Iraq, to secure disputed territory at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers (the Shatt el-Arab) and thus, to improve Iraq’s access to Gulf and to emerge as the paramount leader of the Arab world. Saddam was calculating that -after the revolution- Iran was unprepared for the war. But Iran was to build its Revolutionary Guards simultaneously. The US and USSR declared neutrality in the war. Israel’s Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin was telling frankly that “We don’t want a resolution of this war”. Iran was supported by Libya and Syria. Iraq received financial support from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Gulf states were afraid of Shiite insurgency. Both sides knew that oil export was key to the financing of the war. The war saw the first extensive use of chemical weapons since World War I. In March 1988, Iraq launched a chemical weapon attack on its own city of Halabja, densely populated by Kurds. Finally, a UN associated peace was signed in 1988 and the war ended. The war brought nothing but the strengthening of the Islamic regime in Iran as well as the deepening divisions in Islamic world.
Today
Current Sunni-Shiite tension and rivalries are based on power struggles over some Arab countries including Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq. Saudi Arabia and Iran appear as the two most influential actors on the both camps. Gulf countries and Sunni groups in the Islamic world align themselves with Saudi Arabia, whereas Shiite controlled Arab states align themselves with Iran. The tensions mostly built around the acquisition of the ruling power in states. For instance, Iran strongly supports -together with Russian Federation- Bashar al Assad regime in Syria, whereas Saudi Arabia and Gulf states give their support to revolutionary Sunni groups. It seems like both countries benefit from the ongoing polarization since they are not democratic and stable regimes and the legitimacy of their regimes increase in case of sectarian conflicts. However, the danger of a sectarian war and further division in Islam grow as the escalation continues between these two countries and their camps.
It is also a fact that growing sectarian rivalry negatively affects the stability of secular and democratic regimes in the region. For example, Turkey has been transforming into a more Sunni Islamic country in its foreign policy tendencies and identity formation although the country has been able to protect its secular regime until today. Shiite and Sunni populations in the region are more alienated from each other and become much more radicalized in recent years due to growing sectarian politics. Countries having both Sunni and Shiite population might be negatively affected from this trend if they continue to implement sectarian policies.
Historical information is summarized from; McWilliams, Wayne C. & Piotrowski, Harry (2001), The World Since 1945: A History of International Relations, pp. 413-439
Dr. Ozan ÖRMECİ
8 Ocak 2016 Cuma
Yeni Sunum: “International Crises and Crisis Management”
UPA Genel Koordinatörü Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ozan Örmeci, 7 Ocak 2016 tarihinde Girne Amerikan Üniversitesi'nde düzenlenen forumda "International Crises and Crisis Management" adlı bir sunum yaptı. Aşağıdaki linkten bu sunumla ilgili tüm detaylara ulaşabilirsiniz.
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