2025 TRNC Presidential Election Is Approaching

 

Introduction

The 11th presidential election will be held this year in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), a de facto state that is only recognized by Türkiye (Turkey) but has continued to exist since 1983. In a political system where the methods to be applied in resolving the Cyprus Problem form the basis of political division, Turkish Cypriots will freely choose the most appropriate and visionary leader to advance their country, referred to by Turkish citizens as the “infant homeland” (yavru vatan) through the ballot box. However, due to the TRNC economy being directly dependent on Türkiye and the security of the small state in the north of the island being almost entirely provided by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), the stance of the “motherland” (anavatan), Türkiye, is undoubtedly quite influential in the elections. While this situation may inevitably lead to some reactions and criticisms regarding democratic freedoms, it is worth noting that similar circumstances apply to all democratic countries that are economically and security-wise dependent on other states. Therefore, the TRNC elections are, in a sense, a challenge that demonstrates Türkiye's influence and power in the north of the island, which has been effectively divided since 1974, as one of the three guarantor states of the Republic of Cyprus, along with the United Kingdom and Greece. In this context, Türkiye's pre-election policies and moves should be closely monitored. In addition, the current power divide between the nationalist-right UBP (National Unity Party) and the Rauf (Raif) Denktaş tradition and the leftist Republican Turkish Party (CTP), which advocates a federal solution in line with the international system, will also be revealed in this election. For this reason, the 2025 TRNC presidential election is significant and of international interest.

Previous Elections

When the period of the Turkish Federated State of Cyprus (TFSC) between 1975 and 1983 is taken into account, a total of 10 presidential elections have been held in the TRNC to date. Of these elections, the 1995, 2015, and 2020 presidential elections were decided in the second round, while the winner was determined in the first round in the other seven elections.

In the first presidential election held in 1976, Raif (Raif) Denktaş, who ran on behalf of the National Unity Party (UBP) and is considered a national hero of Turkish Cypriots, was comfortably elected President in the first round, while Ahmet Midhat Berberoğlu, the candidate of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), and independent candidates Dr. Mustafa Şevki Lusignan and Dr. Servet Sami Dedeçay also made their mark as other candidates participating in the election.

In the second presidential election in 1981, Rauf Denktaş ran on behalf of the UBP, Özker Özgür on behalf of the CTP, Ziya Rızkı on behalf of the Social Salvation Party (TKP), Hüsamettin Tanyar on behalf of the Democratic People's Party (DHP), and independent candidate Dr. Servet Sami Dedeçay. As a result of the election, Rauf Denktaş, who was supported by Kemalists, nationalists, and the military in Türkiye, was elected in the first round.

In the 1985 elections, which were the first official presidential elections held in the TRNC, established in 1983, Rauf Denktaş of the UBP was re-elected with a high number of votes in the first round. The other candidates who participated in the election were Özker Özgür on behalf of the CTP, Alpay Durduran on behalf of the TKP, and independent candidates Dr. Servet Sami Dedeçay, Ayhan Kaymak, and Arif Hasan Tahsin Desem.

In the 1990 election, Rauf Denktaş of the UBP was again elected in the first round, while Alpay Durduran of the New Cyprus Party (YKP) and independent candidate İsmail Bozkurt were the other presidential candidates in the election.

The 1995 TRNC presidential election is notable as the first presidential election to go to a second round. In this election, independent presidential candidate Rauf Denktaş, who received the most votes in the first round, and UBP member Derviş Eroğlu advanced to the second round, where Denktaş secured victory once again by defeating Eroğlu. The other candidates who participated in the first round were: Özker Özgür on behalf of the CTP, Mustafa Akıncı on behalf of the TKP, Alpay Durduran on behalf of the YKP, and independent candidates Sami Güdenoğlu and Ayhan Kaymak.

In the 2000 presidential election, independent candidate Rauf Denktaş was re-elected, but this time he faced UBP candidate Derviş Eroğlu in the second round of voting. However, Eroğlu withdrew from the race in the second round, and the election was decided after the first round. The other candidates in the election were Mehmet Ali Talat for the CTP, Mustafa Akıncı for the TKP, Arif Hasan Tahsin Desem for the Patriotic Union Movement, and independent candidates Ayhan Kaymak, Turgut Afşaroğlu, and Şener Levent.

In the 2005 presidential election, Mehmet Ali Talat, who was elected in the first round with 55.59 % of the vote on behalf of the CTP, went down in history as the second President of the TRNC. In this election, Derviş Eroğlu of the UBP failed to advance to the second round, despite receiving 22.73 % of the vote. The other candidates in the election were as follows: Dr. Mustafa Şenol Arabacıoğlu, the Democratic Party (DP) candidate, who received 13.22 % of the vote; Nuri Çevikel, the New Party (YP) candidate, who received 4.79 % of the vote; Zeki Beşiktepeli, the independent candidate, who received 1.71 % of the vote; Hüseyin Angolemli, the TKP candidate, who received 1.05 % of the vote; Zehra Cengiz, the Cyprus Socialist Party (KSP) candidate, who received 0.44 % of the vote; Arif Salih Kırdağ, an independent candidate, who received 0.31 % of the vote; and Ayhan Kaymak, an independent candidate, who received 0.17 % of the vote.

In the 2010 presidential election, Derviş Eroğlu of the UBP was elected as the third President of the TRNC with 50.35 % of the vote in the first round, while independent candidate Mehmet Ali Talat secured 42.87 % of the vote. Among the other independent candidates who participated in the election, Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu received 3.81 %, Zeki Beşiktepeli 1.61 %, Mustafa Kemal Tümkan 0.79 %, Arif Salih Kırdağ 0.43 %, and Ayhan Kaymak 0.14 % of the vote.

The 2015 presidential election in the TRNC was another instance of a runoff election. In the first round, the candidate who received the most votes was Derviş Eroğlu (28.15 %) from the National Unity Party (UBP), who was also supported by the Democratic Party (DP) from outside, and independent candidate Mustafa Akıncı (26.94 %), supported by the Socialist Democracy Party (TDP) from outside. Thus, Eroğlu and Akıncı advanced to the second round. In an unexpected turn of events, socialist candidate Akıncı was elected as the fourth President of the TRNC with 60.50 % of the vote in the second round. Other high-profile candidates who competed in the first round included CTP candidate Sibel Siber, who received 22.53 % of the vote, and independent candidate Kudret Özersay, who received 21.25 % of the vote. Meanwhile, independent candidates Arif Salih Kırdağ, Mustafa Onurer, and Mustafa Ulaş each received less than 1 % of the vote.

The 10th presidential election held in 2020 also went to a second round, with nationalist UBP candidate Ersin Tatar winning 51.69 % of the vote in the second round against Mustafa Akıncı, who was supported by left-wing parties and advocated a federal solution on the island, leading to fierce polemics with the Turkish government during his presidency. Despite Türkiye's support, Akıncı's high vote share is an important indicator of the reactions caused by the political deadlock on the island. Other candidates who participated in the first round of this election included CTP candidate Tufan Erhürman, YDP candidate Erhan Arıklı (supported by Turkish immigrants), MDP candidate Fuat Çiner, and independent candidates Serdar Denktaş (son of Rauf Denktaş), Kudret Özersay, Alpan Uz, Mustafa Ulaş, Arif Salih Kırdağ, and Ahmet Boran.

2025 TRNC Presidential Election

The 11th TRNC presidential election, the first round of which will be held on October 19, 2025, will, as usual, be contested between the candidates of the two established parties of the center-right and center-left, the UBP and the CTP. UBP candidate and 5th TRNC President Ersin Tatar is preparing for the election with confidence, backed by nationalist support, his close ties with Türkiye, and his serious demeanor in office. During his five-year presidency, Tatar acted in accordance with the realities of the island and achieved a diplomatic success in making the TRNC an observer member of the Organization of Turkic States. However, this success was overshadowed by the European Union's counterattack, which resulted in the Turkic States establishing diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level with the Greek Cypriot Administration (officially known as the Republic of Cyprus). Additionally, due to the excessive heterogeneous structure and economic problems on the island caused by the influx of immigrants from Türkiye, African and Middle Eastern countries, as well as Russia and Ukraine in recent years, there have been some reactions against Tatar due to the increasing crime rate.

Following the collapse of the 2017 Crans-Montana talks, Tatar, with Türkiye's support, shifted entirely toward the “two-state solution” thesis. Although he participates in negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations (UN), he insists that his own existence must first be recognized for a possible solution and therefore obstructs possible federation solutions from the outset. As a Turkish Cypriot nationalist, Tatar undoubtedly holds views in favor of the independence of the TRNC and even its unification with Türkiye. However, Tatar, who occasionally maneuvers according to political realities, essentially takes a position based on Ankara's stance and can sometimes behave more moderately. With his emphasis on two states and his desire for independence, Tatar also undermines the view that Türkiye is the party obstructing a solution in the Cyprus negotiations, thereby easing Ankara's position. Recent debates in TRNC domestic politics (such as the headscarf ban in junior schools) have also shown that Tatar is closer to the conservative Erdoğan government in Türkiye, bringing Ankara's possible support for Tatar to the fore ahead of the elections. Additionally, Tatar's close relationship with the late prominent businessman Asil Nadir and his experience in the media sector could be positive factors in terms of attracting the right-wing base and the general public in the TRNC to support Tatar. However, the growing economic problems on the island and the reactions to the authoritarian-leaning government in Türkiye are serious disadvantages for Tatar.

Tufan Erhürman, the candidate of the center-left CTP, which historically advocates a federal solution but also opposes the confrontational policy toward Türkiye pursued by Mustafa Akıncı, is a young politician who has been well known in TRNC politics for years and enjoys the trust of the leftist base. Unlike Akıncı, he has not been declared "persona non grata" by Ankara. Originally a lawyer, Erhürman is a balanced and reasonable politician who supports federation negotiations on the Cyprus Problem but wants to do so without straining relations with Türkiye. Like many Turkish Cypriots, Erhürman is aware that it is very difficult for the TRNC to be recognized due to UN Security Council resolutions, and therefore believes that the deadlock on the island can only be broken by taking steps towards federation. Many young Turkish Cypriots who have been educated in Western countries such as the UK and the U.S. also share this view. Due to the economic problems that have increased in the TRNC in recent years, the rise in crime and violence due to intense migration, the reactions of Turkish Cypriots to their country being associated with sectors such as gambling, sex, drugs, alcohol, and illegal betting, which are not very popular and are not considered suitable for family life, and especially the fact that young Turkish Cypriots find the anti-Greek Cypriot ultra-nationalist attitudes of previous generations exaggerated, Erhürman has a very serious chance of winning the election. Some unfortunate incidents during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to the TRNC have also sparked reactions among the Turkish Cypriot people.

In addition to these two ambitious candidates, it is also worth mentioning the independent candidate and academic, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Hasgüler, who is reportedly running in the election. Hasgüler, who is well-versed in the Cyprus Problem, has essential connections in Türkiye, such as the academic Kudret Özersay, who made a name for himself for a time; however, he does not yet give the impression of being a candidate who can achieve high voter turnout. Apart from these, neither the young and ambitious politician Mehmet Harmancı, the mayor of the Turkish Municipality of Lefkoşa, nor the former President, Mustafa Akıncı, who is frequently mentioned in the international press, are expected to participate in the election. This reveals a principled consensus in support of Erhürman in the island's left-wing politics. Therefore, unlike the previous election, there is a greater likelihood that this election will be decided in the first round.

Electoral System

Presidential elections in the TRNC are conducted by direct voting and secret ballot. Every citizen over the age of 18 has the right to vote. Presidential elections are held every five years. The minimum age for presidential candidates is 35 years old. In the TRNC, a candidate must receive a simple majority (50 % plus one vote) of the valid votes cast to be elected president. If none of the candidates secures an absolute majority, the election is repeated seven days (a week) later between the two candidates who received the most votes. This time, the candidate who receives the most votes and has more than 50 % support is elected as the new President. In this case, if no candidate reaches 50 % on October 19, a second round will be held on October 26. If Ersin Tatar wins, he will continue as the fifth President. If Tufan Erhürman wins, he will become the sixth President of the TRNC, following Rauf Denktaş, Mehmet Ali Talat, Derviş Eroğlu, Mustafa Akıncı, and Ersin Tatar.

In the TRNC, where a semi-presidential system similar to that in France is in place, the President is the highest-ranking executive, primarily responsible for foreign policy and relations with Türkiye. However, the Prime Minister and the government play a more prominent role in the active management of other issues in the country. Therefore, the presidential election is not the sole indicator of political balances in the TRNC. It is also worth noting that the current government, which has been in power since 2022 under Prime Minister Ünal Üstel, is composed of a right-wing coalition consisting of the UBP, DP, and YDP parties.

Current Polls

Some polls conducted in the TRNC at the beginning of the year clearly reveal the polarized structure in the country. Indeed, the right-wing base, which advocates close cooperation with Türkiye and generally supports President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Turkish government, votes for UBP candidates, while the left-wing base, which is more critical towards Türkiye and advocates federation on the island, i.e., unification with the Greeks and EU membership, votes for CTP candidates. In this context, the April 2025 GENAR poll shows that Tatar leads Erhürman by a narrow margin, with 37.9 % support compared to 36 %. However, there are many other candidates in this poll as well. According to the same poll, Erhan Arıklı has 7.1 % support (whose base essentially votes for Tatar), Mehmet Harmancı has 7 % support (whose base essentially votes for Erhürman), Kudret Özersay has 6.8 % support (whose base is divided but will mostly vote for Tatar), Serdar Denktaş with 4.6 % (whose base will be divided in terms of voting behavior but is expected to lean toward Tatar), and Özdil Nami with 0.6 % (whose base will vote entirely for Erhürman). If the votes for these candidates are distributed in a logical sequence, the prevailing view is that Tatar will win the election with a slight advantage.

However, much time has passed since this April poll, and the balance of power on the island has shifted with the start of the election campaigns. Indeed, Özgür Özel, the leader of the CHP, Türkiye's main opposition party, which appears to enjoy strong public support, believes that Tufan Erhürman could win the election. From this point on, the factors that will influence the outcome are: the impact of the candidates' promotional campaigns and speeches in the local media in the TRNC on the public; the promises that the candidates and Turkish officials will make to voters on the island, which has a relatively small electorate of around 200,000; and, of course, the attitude of the Greek Cypriots, who are the other owners of the island. Logically, the Greeks should support Erhürman, who advocates a federal solution. However, considering that some fanatical Greeks do not want to live with Muslim Turks, there may also be Greeks who want Tatar to win, which would significantly reduce the chances of a federal solution on the island. While the United Kingdom (England), one of the guarantor states, avoids taking a clear side on these issues, Greece, the third guarantor state, will logically support Erhürman and the CTP, who support the federation. Under the influence of Greece and Southern Cyprus, if the EU and major European states intervene in the election, as they did during the Annan Plan period in the early 2000s, Erhürman's chances will increase again. However, due to recent events such as the espionage crisis, the closure of the crossing points on the island has even been discussed, so it seems that Türkiye's stance will be more influential this time than that of the EU.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the 2025 TRNC presidential election is anticipated to be a highly competitive contest. Türkiye, which has one of the world's strongest economies and armies, can undoubtedly get its preferred candidate elected if it throws its full weight behind them. However, Ankara traditionally avoids being too overt in this matter and instead exerts its influence through backchannel diplomacy and subtle interventions. In this context, the election is expected to be closely contested, with both candidates having a high chance of winning, each at around 50 %.

Cover Photo: Ersin Tatar and Tufan Erhürman

Prof. Dr. Ozan ÖRMECİ