Ozan Örmeci Makaleler (Ozan Örmeci Articles): Political Polarization in Türkiye Rises with New Arrests towards the Opposition

Introduction

Political polarization in Türkiye has begun to rise once again with new arrests and investigations towards some key figures from the country’s pro-secular opposition. While the voices of the opposition in the country underline the political dimension of these decisions, pro-government forces insist on the impartial functioning of the judiciary. In this piece, I will summarize the most recent political developments in Türkiye as of 30 January 2025 and discuss the future scenarios in terms of the opposition’s strategy.

The Arrest and Investigation Storm: Who and why?

The recent arrest and investigation storm in Türkiye began on 17 January with the arrest of CHP’s Beşiktaş Mayor Rıza Akpolat. Akpolat is accused of “being a member of a criminal organization”, “bid rigging”, and “wrongful acquisition of property”. However, his party members, including İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor (İBB) Ekrem İmamoğlu, described the trial process as “political”.[1] Due to the widespread corruption perception in the country, especially in municipal affairs, people in the early days did not consider this development a direct new threat to democracy.

However, the arrest storm continued with an increasing speed in the subsequent days, as many journalists (Necla Demir, Rahime Karvar, Ahmet Güneş, Welat Ekin, Reyhan Hacıoğlu, Vedat Örüç, Seyhan Avşar, Ahmet Doğan Akın, and Candan Yıldız) were detained due to accusations related to “membership in a terrorist organization”, “propaganda for a terrorist organization through the press and publications”, and “publicly disseminating misleading information through the press and publications”.[2] Since Türkiye has always been a very difficult and dangerous country for journalists, again most of the people in the country did not consider this as a new wave of pressure but as part of the usual authoritarian-leaning politics of the country.

However, the arrest storm continued with popular political and media figures, which caused an atmosphere of political crisis and increasing political polarization. Ultranationalist academic and anti-immigrant Victory Party (Zafer Partisi) chair Prof. Ümit Özdağ was detained and later arrested with the allegation of “insulting the President” on January 21. Özdağ was later accused of “inciting hatred and hostility among the public” due to his discriminatory rhetoric and hate speeches, especially regarding refugees.[3] Özdağ has been popular in recent months with his newly established far-right political party and his harsh opposition to a new “solution process” for the Kurdish Question, which was initiated recently upon MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s address to imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan for declaring disarmament and making a speech within the parliament for the pro-Kurdish DEM Party (a proposal which many people thought as becoming a member of the parliament).[4]

The arrest storm did not end but continued with journalists Ali Ergin Demirhan and Mustafa Bildircin being called to testify on January 22 due to their news reports. On January 25, 34 members of a small Marxist-Leninist party - Socialist Party of the Oppressed (Ezilenlerin Sosyalist Partisi/ESP) -including the party chair Hatice Deniz Aktaş- were collectively arrested for alleged “membership in an illegal organization” and “making propaganda for an illegal organization”.[5] On the very same day, Istanbul Bar Association Executive Board member lawyer Fırat Epözdemir was arrested the same day on charges of “illegal organization membership”.[6] On January 27, Ayşe Barım, a high society manager/agent for actors and celebrities, who was detained on charges of “attempting to overthrow the government of the Republic of Türkiye or prevent it from performing its duties” as part of an investigation launched against her for being one of the “planners” of the Gezi Park protests of 2013, was arrested.[7]

The biggest shock came on January 27, when Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB) Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who was largely seen as the pro-secular opposition’s candidate in the next presidential election and was already called to testify as part of an investigation launched against him on charges of “threatening” and “targeting people fighting against terrorism” due to the statements he made about İstanbul Chief Public Prosecutor Akın Gürlek and his family in a panel on January 20[8], became a party to a new investigation for “targeting a person who is one of the experts in charge of public cases”.[9] İmamoğlu, in his statement earlier, referred to an expert witness whom he blamed for acting with a political motive against himself and his party’s mayors. The second investigation was started with this allegation. Since İmamoğlu was seen as the new hope for the opposition, the investigation caused reactions and the main opposition party CHP members made some demonstrations. Many political commentators from the opposition underlined that the government has been trying to prevent İmamoğlu’s candidacy for the next election. This perception gained weight with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s use of a traditional Turkish idiom “the biggest radish is in the saddlebag” (turbun büyüğü heybede)[10], which he made after the arrest of CHP’s Beşiktaş Mayor Rıza Akpolat. İmamoğlu also perceived this statement against his political career and organized a press conference named “the biggest radish” (turbun büyüğü).

The shock that started with the İmamoğlu investigation further increased on January 28, when an investigation was launched against popular opposition journalist Şirin Payzın for allegedly making “terrorist organization propaganda”.[11] On the same day, the Mayor of Siirt Municipality and former pro-Kurdish Jin News editor Sofya Alağaş was sentenced to prison for “being a member of an illegal organization”.[12] A new trustee (kayyum) Mayor (Siirt governor Dr. Kemal Kızılkaya) was appointed for Siirt.[13] Lastly, on January 28, Barış Pehlivan, a young and popular journalist working for the CHP-affiliated Halk TV, Serhan Asker, the channel’s director in charge, and Seda Selek, the channel’s anchor, were detained for allegedly recording a phone call with an expert witness, broadcasting it on Halk TV without permission, and revealing the name of the expert witness.[14] The arrest decision created a shockwave and again some demonstrations were organized in front of the Halk TV building. However, Fatih Portakal, a popular journalist who presents the main news on Sözcü TV and is largely seen as a figure of the opposition, commented that “what Barış Pehlivan did was wrong” in terms of journalism ethics.[15]

Politically what does it mean?

So, looking at this picture, what should we understand from the recent arrest and investigation storm in Türkiye? I think there are several reasons for this process.

First of all, we should admit that Türkiye’s current political regime is not open to checks and balances and via democratic elections, it creates an “elected God” with the current hyper-presidential laws and regulations as well as the uninterrupted rule of President Erdoğan and his party in the last 22 years. Uninterrupted rule for 22 years means that all key state positions’ holders are appointed by the current regime, which reduces the implementation of democratic impartiality even in judicial affairs. So, in short, these things happen because the political system of the country paves the way for such things to happen. In that sense, a more balanced political system should be created in the coming years with the increasing powers given to parliament and the complete impartiality of the judiciary safely provided.

Secondly, for geopolitical reasons related to Syria, the Turkish regime led by President Erdoğan and supported by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli tries to find ways to solve or ease/soften the Kurdish opposition towards Ankara. For this purpose, Bahçeli has been repeating his call to Öcalan for disarmament and the government allows pro-Kurdish DEM Party officials to visit Öcalan at İmralı Prison. In that sense, the arrest of Özdağ for instance seems like a precaution to prevent potential sabotages to the new solution process. However, Özdağ’s views and his opposition to any kind of opening are not new and so far, his party is not engaged in large-scale militant activities.

Another (third) interpretation is that the government has been preparing an amnesty law, and the recent arrest of opposition figures is part of a larger strategy to release many political prisoners (Öcalan and PKK members, FETÖ members, ultranationalists like Özdağ, and socialist/communist groups etc.) at once. This might be a wishful thinking, but it still deserves to be discussed carefully.

Fourthly, it seems like the election and inauguration of new U.S. President Donald Trump and his lack of interest in promoting democracy in other countries might have had an encouraging effect on the Turkish government to weaken the opposition and further consolidate the new regime that was established following a failed coup attempt in 2016. President Trump constantly praises his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and mentions him as a “strongman”. Trump recently stated that Türkiye “holds the key to Syria” and President Erdoğan “has built a very strong army”.[16] In that sense, Trump’s likely decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria and Türkiye’s likelihood and willingness to get into this country and to acquire control over the Kurdish militants might also have necessitated the government to sweep up inside first before making a big strategic move outside.

The Opposition’s strategy

In despair and anger, the opposition is set to declare its official presidential candidate. CHP chair Özgür Özel recently announced that 1.6 million members of the CHP will decide the party’s presidential candidate soon.[17] CHP has three potential candidates; İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş, and the party chair Özgür Özel.

Since the primary was announced to be made by party members, it seems like İmamoğlu will be the winner and will be nominated as the party’s presidential candidate. However, İmamoğlu could soon face a temporary political ban decision by the judiciary due to his prior statement of “idiot” to then-Minister of Interior Süleyman Soylu.[18] Although it seems like a harsh and unjust punishment, this might happen due to the judiciary’s negative approach to İmamoğlu. In that sense, coming from an ultranationalist MHP background, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş could be the party and the opposition’s next presidential candidate. However, Yavaş’s image among Kurdish voters is not very bright due to his ultranationalist past. Moreover, if Erdoğan and Bahçeli could make a new Kurdish opening in the coming months, this would further decrease the chances of Yavaş in the next election. The third option is Özgür Özel himself. However, so far Özel acts as the party chair and not as the presidential candidate. But in case İmamoğlu is banned from politics, Özel could decide to become a candidate himself instead of Yavaş.

Another strategy of the opposition could be to hold a party congress and elect İmamoğlu as the new party chair. Since CHP is the party that established modern day Türkiye and a legacy of Türkiye’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, banning the chair of CHP from politics could be a very risky decision for Turkish judiciary and will negatively affect the country’s image outside. Moreover, a ban for İmamoğlu might spark popular demonstration across the country and might force the government to take harsh measures.

Conclusion

To conclude, Türkiye’s democratic erosion continues with recent arrests and investigations towards opposition voices. For sure, there might have been some crimes and frauds committed by opposition members or journalists, but the message given to society with a large wave of arrests and investigations is very clear and intimidating: do not oppose the government.

That is why, Türkiye’s return to democratic parameters and European Union (EU) accession process should be the priority of the country in the coming months to establish an efficient system based on the rule of law, democracy, human rights, and separation of powers. On the other hand, if the intentions of the government are good, let us hope that this will lead to a new solution process and peace with Kurds could be achieved through an authoritarian system in Türkiye.

Cover Photo: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/prospects-normalization-turkish-politics

Prof. Ozan ÖRMECİ

FOOTNOTES

[1] https://tr.euronews.com/2025/01/17/besiktas-belediye-baskani-riza-akpolat-tutuklandi.

[2] https://bianet.org/haber/iki-haftalik-tablo-45-tutuklama-dokuz-sorusturma-304068.

[3] https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/gundem/zafer-partisi-genel-baskani-umit-ozdag-tutuklandi/3457111.

[4] https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c1wj32r9dzvo.

[5] https://www.agos.com.tr/tr/yazi/31812/esp-es-genel-baskani-hatice-deniz-aktas-ve-33-siyasetci-tutuklandi.

[6] https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/gundem/avukat-firat-epozdemire-teror-orgutu-sorusturmasinda-tutuklama-/3462334.

[7] https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/menajer-ayse-barim-tutuklandineyle-suclandi-ifadesinde-neler-soyledi,_3WoEo39tUWVIYBU9_bP0A.

[8] https://tr.euronews.com/2025/01/20/ekrem-imamoglu-hakkinda-bassavci-akin-gurleke-yonelik-sozleri-nedeniyle-sorusturma-acildi.

[9] https://tr.euronews.com/2025/01/27/ekrem-imamoglu-hakkinda-bilirkisiyi-hedef-gostermekten-sorusturma-acildi.