Following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s reelection in 2023, Turkish political life was expected to be stable. However, upon the extraordinary success of the main opposition party -pro-secular and pro-EU- CHP (Republican People’s Party) in the 2024 local elections, competition between two mainstream political blocks, namely, governing right-wing AK Parti’s Cumhur İttifakı (People’s Alliance) electoral coalition composed of ultranationalist MHP (Nationalist Action Party), ultranationalist/Islamist BBP (Great Unity Party), Kurdish nationalist/Islamist HÜDAPAR (Free Cause Party), and the center left DSP (Democratic Left Party) and the main opposition party CHP and its allies reached a new level at which the opposition became the leading political power in the country according to local electoral results and nationwide polls. The opposition’s rapid rise with its new leader Özgür Özel was also strengthened by conjunctural trends such as the negative developments in the Turkish economy including the rapid devaluation of the Turkish lira and more importantly the record-breaking inflation rate.
However, as a political mastermind, President Erdoğan and his team were quick to respond to the opposition’s progress by using conjunctural geopolitical developments as a means to reach large masses. President Erdoğan first used Israeli aggression in Gaza as an instrument to mobilize pious masses who were offended by the horrible video footage coming from Gaza. Erdoğan even claimed that Israel has the intention to attack Türkiye as well in the future[1] to further demonize Israel and force the far-right regime in Tel Aviv (Jerusalem) to accept a UN-backed two-state solution. In addition, President Erdoğan was able to force the opposition to talk about selected issues such as the making of a new and civilian constitution rather than the economic crisis in the country or Türkiye’s worsening relations with the Western world by using agenda setting method. Another tactic Erdoğan used together with his Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is to play the BRICS+ card and use Türkiye’s potential membership to the newly developing international platform as a way to counterbalance Western criticism and portray this as a new success in foreign policy.
Devlet Bahçeli
Among these issues, the adoption of a new and civilian-made constitution has become the most important political theme in the country recently. This is because President Erdoğan is in his second term and normally he could not become a candidate once again in 2028. According to my observations, as a natural-born politician, Erdoğan will seek reelection and a constitutional change might give him such a chance. To do this, since the governing bloc needs the support of the opposition to call for a referendum or to legislate the new constitution within the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA), President Erdoğan and his partner MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli have been recently testing the water to get pro-Kurdish DEM Party’s (The Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party) support. While there has been a tough stance against pro-Kurdish political forces in the country since the 2015 Sur events, Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtaş has been in jail for many years and many pro-Kurdish political leaders were replaced by trustees (kayyum) due to their political affiliations in the recent past. However, more recently, President Erdoğan’s long-time political ally MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, who represents the ultranationalist and pan-Turkist large segments of the population, shook the hands of pro-Kurdish DEM deputies at the opening ceremony of the TGNA’s new legislation year.[2] Bahçeli went even further and invited imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to make a speech in the TGNA with the condition of calling for the dissolution of the PKK and laying down arms.[3]
Bahçeli’s shocking statement created a sensation in the country. Some nationalists reacted to this statement. It must be added that the Turkish Constitutional Court also gave an unusual verdict recently and decided that shouting “Biji Serok Apo” (Long Live President Apo) is part of freedom of opinion and should not be considered a crime.[4] These developments created the perception that the government is ready to initiate a new Kurdish opening process after long years in order to ensure pro-Kurdish DEM Party and Kurdish voters’ support for the new civilian-made constitution. CHP on the other hand does not support the making of a new constitution by the current government as their leader Özgür Özel already stated that while the government does not act in conformity with the existing constitution, they should first see the government’s compliance with the existing constitutional order in the country to collaborate with President Erdoğan.[5] In that sense, since CHP support for the new constitution seems less likely, President Erdoğan might push for the adoption of a new constitution in the coming months with the collaboration of the governing bloc, DEM Party, and other small right-wing parties in the parliament including Islamist New Welfare (YRP), Good Party (İYİ Parti), Felicity Party (SP), and DEVA Party.
If we look at the current arithmetic in the TGNA, the AK Parti has 266 deputies, MHP has 50, HÜDAPAR 4, and DSP 1 which makes a total of 321 votes for governing Cumhur İttifakı (People’s Alliance).[6] Since President Erdoğan needs a minimum of 360 votes to call for a referendum or 400 votes to legislate the new constitution in the parliament without a popular vote, he needs to convince more parties to reach these numbers. DEM Party has 57 seats in the TGNA, which makes their contribution to the governing bloc very valuable. With DEM’s support, the governing bloc could easily call for a referendum. In addition, other right-wing parties including İYİ (30 deputies), SP-GP (Future Party) (20 deputies), DEVA (15 deputies), and YRP (4 deputies) have a considerable parliamentary presence. CHP on the other hand has 128 deputies. In that sense, the AK Parti bloc and other right-wing parties plus the DEM could easily reach the number of 400. Another option would be the collaboration of the AK Parti bloc and the CHP to make a European type modern democratic constitution without a military coup.
To conclude, it seems like President Erdoğan wants to ensure the sustainability of his political career by legislating a new constitution. In doing this, Erdoğan needs Kurdish support. That is why, in the coming days a negotiation and bargaining process could take place between government forces and pro-Kurdish groups. Since politics is an art of negotiation, this should be considered a good development. During this negotiation process, a Kurdish opening could come to the agenda of Turkish politics with various policies such as easing the imprisonment condition of Öcalan, liberation of DEM leader Selahattin Demirtaş, cultural rights for Kurds etc. In the meantime, Bahçeli’s statement should be understood as part of this strategy alongside Erdoğan’s plans to give Öcalan and pro-Kurdish forces a chance to consider the possible offer. One last thing, the death of Fethullah Gülen might also have been influential for Bahçeli to react now and try to do something when Öcalan is still alive. Öcalan has been under the Turkish State’s control for more than 25 years and still has a considerable effect on the pro-Kurdish movement. Since other pro-Kurdish groups such as PYD/YPG, PJAK, Qandil group etc. are not under Turkish State's control, Bahçeli’s statement might seem unusual but makes sense strategically to increase Ankara’s control over the separatist organization.
PS: Today’s attack on Türkiye’s strategic TUSAŞ facilities in Ankara show that whenever Türkiye tries to do something peaceful and paves way for diplomacy rather than military methods, a mysterious attack is happening. In that sense, Türkiye should further push for the negotiation and peace process in order not to encourage malign people who are investing in terrorism and power politics rather than civilian and democratic methods.
Prof. Ozan ÖRMECİ
[1] https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c5yjv357p7lo.
[2] https://www.politikyol.com/bahceliden-deme-el-sikisma-mesaji-beni-harekete-geciren-erdoganin-konusmasi.
[3] https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c2kdk9581z0o.
[4] https://tr.euronews.com/2024/10/15/anayasa-mahkemesinden-biji-serok-apo-karari-ifade-ve-dusunce-ozgurlugu-kapsaminda.
[5] https://chp.org.tr/haberler/chp-lideri-ozgur-ozel-anayasayi-degistirecekseniz-once-uydugunuzu-gormemiz-lazim-anayasa-ayaklar-altinda.
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