Istanbul's popular Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu (1971-), who is widely regarded as the country's next President in the potential post-Erdoğan process in the coming years, was detained yesterday with corruption charges and allegations of links with the secessionist and outlawed terrorist organization PKK. The shocking news came on Wednesday, the morning of March 19, 2025. A day earlier, another shocking development took place and İmamoğlu's university graduation diploma (BA degree) from Istanbul University was cancelled by the university administration due to alleged irregularities in his undergraduate transfer from Girne American University in North Cyprus. According to the CHP chair Özgür Özel, these decisions show the authoritarian leaning of Türkiye's regime similar to coup plotters in the past (July 15, 2016) and Erdoğan's fear of competing with İmamoğlu in the next presidential election. Moreover, İmamoğlu's detainment sparked large protests across the country especially among the youth and in universities since İmamoğlu is often perceived as a new hope for the opposition.
Ekrem İmamoğlu became a political star in 2019 after winning the local elections for the Metropolitan Municipality of Istanbul twice from the pro-secular CHP (Republican People's Party). İmamoğlu, who barely defeated his strong rival and former Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım in March 2019, transformed into a rising star in the country after the cancellation of the elections by the YSK (Supreme Electoral Committee). In July 2019, in repeated elections, İmamoğlu reached an all-time high vote with support from coming from very different segments of society. In the next few years, İmamoğlu became a nationwide popular politician who has been able to unify very different social groups including classical pro-secular CHP voters, leftists, center-right moderates as well as Kurds and some portion of Islamist-conservative groups. A native of conservative-nationalist Trabzon city in the Black Sea (Karadeniz) region, İmamoğlu was even described as "Erdoğan of the CHP" due to his populist style and pious personality. İmamoğlu was able to keep his place as the Mayor of Istanbul in the 2024 local elections against Murat Kurum, Erdoğan's close associate and a top name within the ruling AK Parti (Justice and Development Party). Before the cancellation of his diploma and detainment, İmamoğlu was making preparations to be declared as his party CHP's (Republican People's Party) presidential candidate with a primary to be held by CHP on March 23, 2025, this Sunday. According to contemporary polls, İmamoğlu would have defeated Erdoğan in a head-to-head presidential election. So, these decisions overshadowed İmamoğlu's presidential candidacy declaration. Moreover, it seems like Istanbul's Mayor may not run for the presidency in the next elections due to his potential incarceration. In my opinion, CHP members will continue to vote for İmamoğlu this Sunday and probably name him as the party's presidential candidate for the next elections. However, in case İmamoğlu is arrested or the decision for the cancellation of his diploma is not reversed, he might not run for the presidency. In that sense, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş could be the presidential candidate of the CHP and the opposition in general.
Accusations against İmamoğlu are based on two main issues. One of them is about corruption related to tender contracts made by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB). The other accusation on the other hand is about the "City Consensus" (Kent Uzlaşısı) platform İmamoğlu team established before the 2024 local elections. Through this platform, the pro-Kurdish DEM Parti supported İmamoğlu's candidacy and did not contest the elections with their candidate. This was a major factor in İmamoğlu's success against Murat Kurum in last March's critical local elections. Istanbul Public Prosecutor considered the "City Consensus" initiative as an aide to the outlawed PKK and its political organization DEM Parti and called İmamoğlu a "criminal enterprise ringleader". Moreover, the Public Prosecutor called for the detainment/arrestation of around 100 more people, including İmamoğlu's close aide Murat Ongun and election campaign manager Necati Özkan. In that sense, not only İmamoğlu but the whole İmamoğlu team was targeted based on corruption and help to terrorist organizations.
On the other hand, many people in Türkiye and in the world who have critical views toward the Erdoğan regime considered this process more "political" than "judicial". It is really interesting to note that while the Turkish government is trying to conduct a peace process with the imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, an electoral coalition with the legal and legitimate DEM Parti (which has some links with the PKK) could be considered support given to the terrorist organization by the judiciary authorities in Türkiye. In that sense, although the indictment and the case will tell us the truth about the allegations against İmamoğlu and CHP's İBB administration, the perception of a political witchhunt process is very strong among the opposition groups within the country.
These shocking developments created public anger, especially among the opposition voters and caused protests in many universities and public places. CHP Deputy Chairperson and Professor of International Relations, Dr. İlhan Uzgel commented on these developments as "democratic backsliding" and claimed that Türkiye is making a transition from "competitive authoritarianism" into "uncompetitive authoritarianism". In the meantime, I should add that the government was trying to prepare a new constitution with the help of the opposition before this tense process, but the opposition was categorically refusing to cooperate with the Erdoğan regime due to previous deeds of the government. In that sense, my observation is that the judicial authority decided to accelerate the process of investigating İmamoğlu after CHP's cold approach to the constitution-making process and İmamoğlu's decisive step to become the presidential candidate of his party in advance. That is why, it seems like from now on it is going to be a very risky and problematic process in Turkish politics and the two main and rival blocs in politics will try to harm and destroy each other.
Finally, I hope that Türkiye's two biggest political parties AK Parti and CHP could find a way to cooperate and solve the country's domestic and international problems rather than starting arm wrestling which would harm all sides and the country in general. Türkiye needs a national consensus (Ulusal Mutabakat) government in a very critical conjuncture due to developments in Syria, peace talks with the PKK, and tense relations with great powers such as the United States and Russia. I hope President Erdoğan can lead the country in the right direction and reestablish a democratic regime by cooperating with the opposition. I also wish the opposition not to approach Erdoğan as an enemy but as the legitimately elected President of Türkiye. Lastly, I hope the opposition would prefer democratic negotiations and cooperation rather than street clashes like in the 1970s.
Prof. Ozan ÖRMECİ
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