The pro-secular Republican People's Party (CHP), Türkiye's main opposition party and the most substantial political entity according to the results of the 2024 local elections, held an extraordinary congress the previous day (April 6, 2025) against the risk of a trustee (kayyum) being appointed to the party leadership based on accusations related to the party's 2023 ordinary congress. The party's current (8th) chair Özgür Özel won the convention easily.
Özgür Özel received 1,171 votes at the congress held in the capital Ankara, where a total of 1,323 registered delegates were present. 105 votes were invalid. Özel joined the race for the presidency as the only candidate. In fact, famous actor Berhan Şimşek also reached the required number of signatures to run for the presidency. However, Şimşek failed to submit his application on time, so the presidential race continued with a single candidate. Şimşek, angry at the situation, reproached Özgür Özel and his party members, claiming that he had served the party more than Özel. At the congress, which was held at an extraordinary time when the party's presidential candidate and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was in jail, the party members showed their confidence in Özgür Özel's leadership in this process. Former chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was also unable to announce his candidacy due to pressure and only attended the convention.
After the congress, it is possible to say that the CHP has regained its morale and increased its chances of power. However, given the disproportionate power of the government in Türkiye and the unwillingness of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the opposition to compromise under any circumstances, it may be difficult to argue that calm days await the country. Although İmamoğlu protests and the student demonstrations that started in Saraçhane have slowed down a bit in recent days, I predict that politics in Türkiye will continue in a harsh climate in the current polarized environment. Maybe with the onset of summer, the tension may ease a bit. The government on the other hand will undoubtedly focus on the dismantling of PKK and the peace process with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, both to ensure Erdoğan's candidacy for a third term and to win back the Kurdish vote. There is also the possibility of making the current regime permanent with a new constitution. CHP on the other hand, will use its victim image and İmamoğlu, who has been massively popularized by the protests, to prepare for the next elections and push the government for early elections.
Finally, due to the situation of Ekrem İmamoğlu, it is now possible to say that Özgür Özel has a serious chance to run for President in the next election. Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş is another favorite. However, in recent days, Yavaş has made some statements indicating that he is cold to run. The regime's ruthless attitude towards its political opponents may be forcing Yavaş to act with restraint. In any case, in a fair election environment, the chances of the CHP candidate winning the election are very high. In order to succeed, the Erdoğan government now needs to put this incident behind it and achieve success in the economy and foreign policy. To be honest, positive signals are coming from the Donald Trump administration in the U.S. But I guess Washington will also have conditions to help Erdoğan stay in power and fix the economy, which I think would be the support for Kurdish autonomy in Syria and close ties with Israel in the new era. The European Union (EU) has also reacted less harshly than expected in this process, as it is concerned about Türkiye's further alignment with Russia, but it is still important to note that democracy must be practiced under minimum conditions in order to improve relations with Brussels. Russia and the BRICS countries, on the other hand, I think will continue to side with Erdoğan and will not prefer a sudden change in Ankara's position.
Prof. Ozan ÖRMECİ
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