Introduction
In the first round of the presidential elections held today (October 19, 2025) in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), the center-left Republican Turkish Party (CTP) leader and presidential candidate Dr. Tufan Erhürman, who received 63 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential elections, won the elections and became the sixth President of the Republic after Rauf Denktaş, Mehmet Ali Talat, Derviş Eroğlu, Mustafa Akıncı, and Ersin Tatar. Erhürman's strong rival and the 5th President of the Republic, Ersin Tatar, on the other hand, received 36 percent of the vote. Thus, Erhürman, who advocates dialogue with the Greek Cypriots and federation negotiations for the resolution of the Cyprus Problem, was elected to this honorable office. In this article, I will analyze the elections and introduce Dr. Tufan Erhürman to our readers.
Analysis of the Election
As a political scientist well-versed in the historical development of the Cyprus Problem and the sociological characteristics of Turkish Cypriots, I must admit that the outcome of the 2025 TRNC presidential election did not surprise me at all. Looking at previous Northern Cyprus presidents, after Rauf Denktaş, who dominated Turkish Cypriot politics at a time when the memories of the massacres of Turkish Cypriots by Greek Cypriots and the 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation were still fresh, with Türkiye's support, a pattern emerged in which generally pro-federation leftist candidates (Mehmet Ali Talat and Mustafa Akıncı) were elected, and then nationalist candidates (Derviş Eroğlu and Ersin Tatar) who favored a two-state solution were elected. In this sense, after the Ersin Tatar period, which channeled support toward the two-state thesis but ended in disappointment when it failed to achieve success, the election of a pro-federation politician in the north of the island was, in my opinion, a very natural and reasonable expectation. However, due to Türkiye's support for Ersin Tatar and its significant power on the island, the view that voters could be influenced before the election and give Tatar another chance out of gratitude to the motherland was undoubtedly frequently discussed in our analysis articles.
At this point, it is worth emphasizing the serious communication errors made in recent years in the relations between Türkiye and the TRNC, which has a political culture and sociological structure quite different from Türkiye. Indeed, in the TRNC, which Türkiye sustains in every respect (security, political, economic, logistical, etc.), Ankara's position has shifted from that of a benevolent big brother to an authoritarian parent in recent years. This, coupled with deteriorating economic conditions and changing demographics, has led to rising resentment toward Ankara among Turkish Cypriots. Adding to this situation is the unease created by the current UBP administration and Ankara's failure to present a concrete solution in the short and medium term based on the two-state thesis, Turkish Cypriots began to see reconciliation with Greek Cypriots and a return to the Republic of Cyprus as a more reasonable political option for a brighter and more predictable future, allowing them to become citizens of an EU member state accepted throughout the world. In this context, Tufan Erhürman, who is more pro-Ankara than Mustafa Akıncı but also more pro-Cyprus than the right-wing UBP candidates, has achieved a significant election victory, living up to expectations.
In the TRNC, which has 218,313 registered voters, turnout remained at 65 percent across the 777 polling stations set up nationwide. This likely benefited Erhürman more than Tatar and was a significant factor in the opposition candidate's victory. Tatar's statements in the last few days of the election, which seemed to accept defeat, actually foreshadowed the results and caused the right-wing base to be reluctant to go to the polls. However, contrary to what some media outlets in Türkiye have erroneously claimed, Erhürman is not an anti-Türkiye politician, nor did Türkiye engage in any serious and active efforts to prevent Erhürman from winning the election. In this sense, Ankara, as a state that respects international law but insists on protecting the rights of Turkish Cypriots, reasonably supports the settlement negotiations, but due to the climate of distrust created by the Greeks in the 2004 Annan Plan and the 2017 Crans-Montana talks, it strives to act in a balanced manner and protect its own interests. In this context, the democratic nature and outcome of the elections have, in my opinion, been the best response to the prejudices and accusations surrounding this issue.
Who is Dr. Tufan Erhürman?
Born on September 11, 1970, in Nicosia, Dr. Tufan Erhürman is an academic and politician who completed his middle school and high school education at Türk Maarif College and enrolled at Ankara University in 1988 to study law. Erhürman received his bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degrees from Ankara University. He successfully completed his doctorate in 2001 with a thesis titled “Extrajudicial Control of the Administration and the Ombudsman” and was awarded a doctorate in law. Between 1995 and 2001, Erhürman taught Public Law at prestigious Turkish universities such as Ankara University, Middle East Technical University (METU), and Hacettepe University. Between 2001 and 2006 and 2008 and 2013, he was a lecturer at Eastern Mediterranean University in the TRNC. Between 2006 and 2008, Erhürman was a member of the academic staff at Near East University, another TRNC university, and distinguished himself within his community as a successful academic who advocated progressive views.
Erhürman first entered active politics between 2008 and 2010 as a member of the negotiation team of Mehmet Ali Talat, the second President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. He quickly gained fame for his legal knowledge and charismatic personality and was elected as Lefkoşa MP for the Republican Turkish Party-United Forces (CTP) in the 2013 general elections. During his first term as a member of parliament, Tufan Erhürman spearheaded efforts within the assembly to amend the constitution and was appointed Secretary General of his party in 2015. On November 13, 2016, Erhürman was elected leader of the Republican Turkish Party and the main opposition, replacing Mehmet Ali Talat. Re-elected as CTP Lefkoşa MP in the 2018 general elections, Erhürman led the coalition government during this period, serving as Prime Minister of the TRNC for 15 months and gaining significant experience. However, when the Erhürman government collapsed in 2019 due to disagreements among coalition partners, Erhürman began serving as leader of the main opposition party on May 22, 2019.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Tufan Erhürman, a brilliant young academic and politician, will seek to create a moderate political climate in Cyprus and actively participate in the solution negotiations once again, thereby creating a renewed warming process in Turkish-Greek and Türkiye-European Union relations. He will try to explain to Ankara that acting in accordance with international law is more beneficial for himself and the Turkish Cypriots, without resorting to policies of confrontation with Türkiye, as during the Mustafa Akıncı era. However, it is also clear how controversial international law has become in the context of the policies of states such as Israel, the U.S., and Russia in recent years. Therefore, I believe it will not be easy for Erhürman's efforts to result in a federal solution on the island. Ankara believes that Turkish Cypriots can only live safely under an EU umbrella that includes itself and is making its future plans primarily on the basis of a two-state solution.
Therefore, I believe that expectations from Erhürman should not be a political miracle, but rather a moderation and softening of the political climate in the Aegean and Mediterranean. However, of course, in a process where Ankara will be very weak, such as the 2001 economic crisis, the process of reintegrating the north of the island into European territory can be achieved peacefully with a quick fait accompli in Cyprus. This, of course, is closely related to Türkiye being a peaceful state that respects international law and norms, as it is not legally justified on the island according to United Nations Security Council resolutions. Opposing negotiations would create the risk of Ankara becoming a state isolated from the world and completely excluded by the EU. Therefore, in order to show that the problem stems from structural issues rather than from itself, Ankara should, in my opinion, support the negotiations, or at least not obstruct them. However, due to the Turkish public's habit of approaching politics on the basis of football team fanaticism, explaining political realities and legal issues to the public is not always an easy task. Nevertheless, considering the rapid rise in the level of awareness and education among the Turkish public in recent years, the Turkish people will always be open to and supportive of peace.
Prof. Dr. Ozan ÖRMECİ
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